From: Norm Matloff Subject: Microsoft show Message-ID: <20121002062254.GA19617@laura> Reply-To: To: H-1B/L-1/offshoring e-newsletter Oct. 1, 2012 Microsoft recently made a dramatic full-court PR press for expanding the H-1B program, proposing a $10K user fee per visa, on top of current fees, to fund educational measure to remedy a supposed labor shortage in the computer area. Microsoft's Brad Smith made the proposal at yet another Brookings Institution forum; see http://www.brookings.edu/events/2012/09/27-stem-education Microsoft also dispatched its engineers to the K-12 schools to drum up business. I'll cover a number of issues here: 1. There is no labor shortage in the computer field. 2. Microsoft could fill many, if not all, of its openings with highly-qualified Americans. 3. Microsoft has once again misrepresented their salary structure. 4. It's time that the press started questioning the role of Brookings in the H-1B/green card issue. A quick way to see that we don't have a tech labor shortage is to observe that Texas Instruments said so, at least for the Bachelor's degree level. Moreover, TI said this during its testimony in which it urged Congress to expand foreign worker programs! TI has been at the forefront over the years in pushing Congress to expand the H-1B and EB-series green card programs, so their admission of a lack of a shortage should convince many of you. But you insist on data-oriented evidence, there are, for instance, the Salzman and Lowell study, the flat salaries and so on. You can find details and links to all of this in my latest research paper, at http://migration.ucdavis.edu/rs/more.php?id=182_0_3_0 TI did claim a shortage at the PhD and Master's degree levels. But that's an invalid claim too. We have a surplus, at least at the PhD level (Microsoft's Smith cited both the Bachelor's and PhD levels in his presentation). One way to see this is that it is now commonplace for new PhDs in computer science to work as post docs after they finish their degrees. This wasn't the case in the past, the SRI found that it is now a permanent part of the CS PhD degree trajectory--due to a SURPLUS in the production of CS PhDs. This too is discussed in my above research paper, but here is one new point showing this trend: The University of Massachusetts/Amherst Computer Science Department is one of the best (say, top two dozen) in the nation. In their periodic newsletters, they list their recent PhD graduates and the graduates' current place of employment. Compare the current issue, Summer 2012, at https://www.cs.umass.edu/sites/default/files/uploads/sigbits_summer2012.pdf (p14) to the corresponding issue in 2008, at http://www.cs.umass.edu/people/recent-phd-graduates-where-are-they-now The current crop includes several post docs, vs. only one in 2008. (You can see all back issues at http://www.cs.umass.edu/about/alum-matters-back-issues) Of all the articles that have appeared since Smith made his proposal, I've seen only two that quote an opposing voice. One is the Computerworld piece, at for example http://www.infoworld.com/t/federal-regulations/microsoft-pitches-10000-h-1b-visa-203541?page=0,0 The article at http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/microsoft-companies-should-pay-uncle-sam-10k-h-1b-visa-hire-skilled-foreigners does so too, ending with this passage: Critics claim Microsoft wants to hire more foreign workers because they are cheaper to employ. Les French, president of the tech worker advocacy group WashTech, said in an email to Information Week, Microsoft probably has "6,000 jobs to fill because they are enamored of foreign labor. I doubt they couldn't fill the jobs from the available labor pool in the U.S." Excellent point. In my previous research, I found that Microsoft hires only 2% of its applicants. One can't expect the figure to be 100%, of course, as many applicants just aren't up to Microsoft quality. But with 6000 openings, I agree that there are well-qualified U.S. workers available for many, if not most of those positions. The Gates quote in the above article, for instance, cites the computer security area. True, the quote is from 2005, but security is an even hotter area now than then, and I know of an excellent security expert who has been looking for a job for months. One of the big problems is the age issue, as usual. Recall that Microsoft, in an unguarded moment, admitted that it doesn't hire many older workers for tech jobs (see my Brookings critique below). Once again, keep in mind that 35 is "old." Smith, by the way, once again repeats the claim that the typical starting salary for a software engineer is $100K. The PERM green card data contradict that claim, and Microsoft can't have it both ways: Either its claim not to underpay foreign workers is false, or its $100K figure is wrong. Actually, Microsoft's whole PR press here is a repeat, reminiscent of the 1990s industry lobbyist statements along the lines of "We have a big STEM education gap to fill, but if we concentrate hard we can lick the problem, by golly!" One ironic difference, though is that in 1996 Sen. Simpson proposed that employers pay a $10K user fee per H-1B hire, which the industry refused to agree to; now it's Microsoft that is proposing a $10K fee. Finally, why has Brookings been holding so many conferences on H-1B and employer-sponsored green cards, all with a pro-industry bent? Why in particular have Microsoft speakers featured prominently in the last two of these events? See http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/Archive/BrookingsGeo.txt Here is the likely answer, an article titled "The fine print: Brookings study on Google-DoubleClick deal funded by Microsoft," at http://www.zdnet.com/blog/microsoft/the-fine-print-brookings-study-on-google-doubleclick-deal-funded-by-microsoft/755 Brookings calls itself "independent," but the reality is that it is funded by donors, and donors like Microsoft aren't the type to not want something in return for their money. It's remarkable that no one in the press seems to have asked Brookings whether these conferences and the associated research has any funding from industry. The same is true for the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, whose researcher Nicole Smith was also on the Brookings panel last week. Significantly, Ms. Smith mentioned, "Well, I'm going to answer this because my Center at Georgetown, we recently just won a bid which is going to partner with the CTE..." Did you catch that--"won a bid." This is how these think tanks stay in business, and in winning a research contract from some entity, the researchers are not likely to rock the boat with findings contrary to those desired by the funder. The Georgetown center has also been funded by Microsoft. As the Watergate-era saying goes, "Follow the money." Norm http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/microsoft-companies-should-pay-uncle-sam-10k-h-1b-visa-hire-skilled-foreigners Privacy and Security Fanatic Ms. Smith Microsoft: Companies should pay Uncle Sam $10k per H-1B Visa to hire skilled foreigners In the next 10 years, the U.S. is expected to add about 120,000 computer-related jobs that will require at least a bachelor's degree. Colleges and universities are pumping out only about half of the needed graduates to meet those employment expectations. Microsoft chief counsel Brad Smith spoke at a panel discussing STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) education and immigration policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. "We are creating unfilled jobs. We have a shortage," Smith said. "This shortage is going to get worse." He added, "It's a problem that's approaching dimensions of a genuine crisis." The Seattle Times reported, "Faced with 6,000 job openings and Congress at loggerheads over whether to admit more skilled workers from overseas, Microsoft on Thursday offered a twofer solution - charging employers millions of dollars for the right to hire more foreigners and using the money for training to eventually fill those jobs with Americans." "American workers just aren't good enough for Microsoft," Latitude News interpreted of the Seattle Times article. It then added, "Hey, talented foreigners, Bill Gates wants YOU! To immigrate to the United States. But Uncle Sam says no, for now." There is a current annual cap of 65,000 H-1B Visas with large employers paying $1,500 apiece and thousands in various other fees, but Smith said the government should issue an additional 20,000 STEM-specific visas each year as well as 20,000 new green cards for tech workers. Smith's proposal consisted of companies paying $10,000 for each worker they hire under an expanded STEM-specific H-1B visa program, and $15,000 for every green card issued to foreign tech workers. When added up, all those fees would bring the government an additional $500 million per year. One of the reasons for Microsoft's lobbying push, according to Smith, is that this year Microsoft reportedly has a 34% increase, or 3,400 job openings for researchers, developers and software engineers and programmers. Microsoft said it can't find enough high-tech talented applicants to fill the jobs, especially in key areas like cloud computing and mobility. "The skill gap is one of the biggest problems Microsoft faces," he said. The Brookings Institution added, "Employers are often unable to fill high-skilled domestic jobs with high-skilled American workers. Further, there is a crisis brewing for the next generation - a growing gap between the few young people prospering and those left behind because they lack the education, skills and opportunities to succeed." This was far from the first time Microsoft has said it's having a hard time finding workers who are skilled enough within the United States. In 2005, when urging the U.S. to end tech Visa caps, Bill Gates stated, "Anybody who's got a good computer-security education, they're not out there unemployed. We're just not seeing an available labor pool." "Digging into Microsoft's Layoffs," the Seattle Business graphed Microsoft's employee data from 2005 - 2010. Michael Cheery, an analyst for Directions on Microsoft, said of those numbers, "Periodically they adjust the number of employees. This falls within the normal changes that occur within the economic conditions. Microsoft is always looked for talented people, and they have lots of big projects underway and are active in lots of areas." But even Google had to lay off 4,000 workers from its Motorola Mobility unit - even though most of the workers were from outside the USA. Yet Microsoft has "adjusted" its number of employees via more layoffs in 2011 and 2012. Are all these people who lost their jobs simply not considered talented enough to be re-hired instead of fired and thereby justify hiring outside the American workforce? If it is about education, then know that Microsoft also called on Congress to invest $5 billion in American school systems in the next 10 years. Is it a matter of not enough schooling, period, or does it delve deeper by not enough important STEM education classes starting early enough? Of course the economy is not exactly booming in some areas which continues the vicious cycle of budget cuts for teachers and schools even though it's been called "cutting the future" by Bloomberg. Regarding computer science and related science and mathematics classes, should schools stick with experienced senior teachers or bring in the "new" cutting-edge and high-technology teachers? Bloomberg also quoted Chester Finn Jr., former secretary of education under President Reagan, as saying, "Just as some schools are dropout factories, there are teachers that are ignorance factories. You're going to have to let some people go, so why not get rid of the people who aren't getting the job done?" Microsoft is not alone in calling for more computer science courses or in its proposal which Smith says is "supported by information-technology companies and trades groups." A Microsoft programmer or software engineer's typical salary ranges from "$100,000 to $120,000, plus a $20,000 signing bonus," according to Smith. "Add $50,000 in stock options, plus the cost of an office and other expenses, and total cost might add up to $200,000." Therefore he considers the "$10,000 fee for an H-1B visa a small one-time investment." Critics claim Microsoft wants to hire more foreign workers because they are cheaper to employ. Les French, president of the tech worker advocacy group WashTech, said in an email to Information Week, Microsoft probably has "6,000 jobs to fill because they are enamored of foreign labor. I doubt they couldn't fill the jobs from the available labor pool in the U.S." About Privacy and Security Fanatic Ms. Smith (not her real name) is a freelance writer and programmer with a special and somewhat personal interest in IT privacy and security issues. Smith has a diverse background in information technology, programming, web development, IT consulting, and information security. She focuses on the unique challenges of maintaining privacy and security, both for individuals and enterprises. She has worked as a journalist and has also penned many technical papers and guides covering various technologies. Smith is herself a self-described privacy and security freak. Smith is an independent contractor and is not affiliated with any vendor that makes or sells information technology.