Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:47:57 -0800 From: Norm Matloff To: Norm Matloff Subject: DOC changes its tune To: age discrimination/H-1B mailing list In 1997, the Department of Commerce was in complete, embarrassing alliance with the industry lobbyists who were claiming that more H-1B visas were needed to address a programmer shortage. However, to DOC's credit, they became much more broad-minded on the H-1B and "shortage" issues, and treated them remarkably evenhandedly in their 1999 and 2000 reports, saying for example that available data do not confirm the industry's shortage claims. Now with the new administration, all of that is apparently changed, as the enclosed article shows. The Department of Labor, traditionally rather sympathetic to critics of the H-1B program, has made a sea change as well. (POSTSCRIPT: Bond soon afterward wrote a letter to the editor, reaffirming that DOC was not taking a position that implied a tech labor shortage. It is appended at the end of the enclosed article.--NM) For those of you who are relatively new to this e-mail list, the line seen below, that we have to train more people in order to reduce the need for H-1Bs, is a standard industry lobbyist stall tactic. Employers reject the vast majority of their programmer applicants already; getting more young people to pursue the field would only produce more people for the employers to reject. Norm http://www.computerworld.com/storyba/0,4125,NAV47_STO66904,00.html Government: Demand exceeds supply of skilled IT workers By LINDA ROSENCRANCE (December 21, 2001) Layoffs in the tech sector aside, demand for skilled IT workers still exceeds the supply, according to Phillip Bond, the U.S. Commerce Department's undersecretary for technology. Speaking to the media yesterday, Bond said there's a mismatch of skills between unemployed workers and companies needing to fill IT jobs. Bond was in Waltham, Mass., yesterday to meet with the state's high-tech companies to examine the IT sector's workforce needs for the 21st century and to discuss public policies to support continued U.S. leadership in the Information Age. The meetings were held at an IBM facility in conjunction with the Massachusetts Software and Internet Council and the Technology Network, a network of senior executives of the nation's leading technology companies. Bond said IT workers with Internet security and networking skills are in high demand but added that companies are also looking for IT workers with good business and communication skills. "Employers are still having trouble finding the types of people they need ... because the numbers of people who can fit [the criteria] are slim," he said. Joyce Plotkin, president of the Massachusetts Software and Internet Council, said companies also are looking for employees with skills in areas that intersect one another, such as biotechnology and IT. During yesterday's roundtables, discussion included ways the government can help to ensure that U.S. businesses have the trained workers they need to fill high-tech positions so they don't have to hire as many foreign workers. One way to do that, Bond said, is to encourage young people, especially girls, to pursue more math, science and technology careers. Other subjects covered by the business and government leaders were the pros and cons of e-government ideas, how the Internet could make government more efficient and privacy concerns. Date: Mon, 28 Jan 2002 12:52:28 -0800 From: Norm Matloff To: Norm Matloff Subject: Dept. of Commerce letter to the editor To: age discrimination/H-1B mailing list Enclosed below is the promised letter to the editor. The key point is that Mr. Bond reaffirms DOC's earlier position that available data over the past several years have not confirmed the industry lobbyists' claims of an IT labor shortage. Mr. Bond says that he is interested in educating future workers. Let me reiterate that (a) all educational efforts are doomed unless we make use of the workers we have, and (b) this profession will never be very attractive if hiring continues on a boom/bust basis. Concerning (a), as I have written at length, the industry has, even during boom years, always ignored large segments of the available programmer workforce. Older workers (age 40, or even 35) are often rejected by employers out of hand; HR departments use absurdly stringent screening procedures based on skill sets of very little relevance to job performance; more than half of new computer science graduates are shunted into nontechnical/semitechnical jobs like customer support (from which very few are able to later transfer into technical jobs); etc. Concerning (b), HERE IS SOME NEWS: After skyrocketing during the latter half of the 1990s, new university computer science applications are now down 30% for Fall 2002, according to a dean here at UCD. As I have pointed out in the past, CS enrollment follows the same boom/bust pattern as the IT job market, with a slight lag. The supply is quite elastic to demand, contrary to the industry lobbyists's claims that U.S. youth lack the interest and background to do this kind of work. Yet when the "temporary" H-1B quota increase enacted in 2000 expires in 2003, the industry lobbyists are sure to say, "See, CS enrollment is down again! We need the H-1Bs!" If Mr. Bond is sincerely concerned about educating future IT workers, then he MUST address issues (a) and (b) here. By using the word "sincerely" I do not mean to cast doubt on his sincerity, but clearly it will NOT be enough to occasionally meet with some CEOs, who led the government astray in the first place. In other words, something very proactive must be done. Mr. Bond would do quite well to note that in spite of all these layoffs, we still have several hundred thousand H-1Bs holding IT jobs. They should be sent home, since the putative reason for their being here in the first place was a shortage (which Mr. Bond cannot confirm ever existed anyway), and they are now holding jobs which U.S. citizens and permanent residents should have instead. Mr. Bond ought to consider whether this situation -- many American IT workers laid off while many H-1Bs still hold jobs -- serves as encouragement or discouragement of young people going into this field; I trust the answer is obvious. By the way, due to my writings on this topic, I get many inquiries from worried high school seniors who are considering majoring in CS in college, but worry that their careers in programming would be short or nonexistent. I try to encourage them by telling them has exciting the field is, but at the same time I tell them realistically what prospects are like (bad). I wonder if Mr. Bond would prefer I be more positive in the advice I give. Again, I do not mean to imply that Mr. Bond is reluctant to face these issues. I certainly hope not. Norm http://www.computerworld.com/cwi/letters/0,2107,NAV47-68-86-1698,00.html A Clarification (01/28/2002)  I deeply appreciate Computerworld's coverage of the nation's challenge in meeting the demand for highly skilled IT workers ("Government: Demand Exceeds Supply of Skilled IT Workers," Computerworld.com, Dec. 21). However, it's essential that I set the record straight with respect to the article's assertion that I stated that demand for IT workers still exceeds supply. First, I didn't assert that demand exceeds the supply of skilled IT workers in the current tech downturn. Prior to the recent economic slowdown, there was evidence pointing to a tight labor market for highly skilled IT workers, such as rapid growth in IT occupations (11.2% between 1999 and 2000), low unemployment rates and rising salaries, with some worker salaries reportedly rising significantly. However, due to the limitations of available data, there was not then, nor is there now, any way to establish conclusively whether there is, or is not, an overall IT worker shortage. Second, I did make several points related to the nation's IT workforce challenge that I would like to reiterate and expand on: With the downturn, many IT workers have been laid off. At the same time, many companies (as well as the federal government) are hiring, recognizing the opportunity to secure outstanding talent. Despite short-term layoffs, the longer-term outlook for IT workers is quite positive. Department of Commerce analysis of the latest employment projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (November 2001) covering the 2000-2010 period indicates that the number of jobs for IT professionals will grow from 3.3 million to 5.5 million. In addition, another 340,000 will be needed to replace those leaving IT occupations due to retirement and other reasons. All told, the projections indicate that the nation will need more than 2.5 million new IT professionals during this 10-year period. Finally, my comments were made following a roundtable discussion with IT employers in the Boston area to gather information for a congressionally mandated report the Commerce Department is preparing on IT education and training. More than ever, IT and the professionals engaged in its creation and application will be critical to U.S. competitiveness. Understanding the IT labor market and education and training pipeline - what employers are seeking, the landscape of IT education and training available, and the institutions and processes IT professionals use to get and maintain their knowledge and skills - is essential to crafting effective federal policies that maximize the nation's ability to meet the demand for IT workers and to provide the greatest opportunities for American workers. Thank you for the opportunity to set the record straight. Phillip J. Bond Undersecretary of Commerce for Technology