Date: Wed, 24 Mar 2004 11:20:53 -0800 From: Norm Matloff To: Norm Matloff Subject: report on sharp decline in CS enrollment To: H-1B/L-1/offshoring e-newsletter The following error by a good reporter shows how difficult it is to discuss the tech job market with the media and politicians: Undergraduates at top-ranked universities don't appear to be losing interest in computer-science education as rapidly as counterparts in second-tier schools. But they still face the harsh realities of the job market and their expectations are lower, said Robert Gray, vice chair of the electrical-engineering department at Stanford University. The CRA report on enrollment figures cited in this article is about computer science. Yet the reporter chose to ask an electrical engineering department--a field almost totally unaffected by offshoring so far--about enrollment, and then worse, decided that the lack of a large drop in EE enrollment at Stanford means that the top universities haven't been hit so hard by the enrollment declines in CS. Mind boggling. Indeed, the CRA survey consists ONLY of the better departments, the research-oriented universities. For the record, MIT enrollment in their combined CS/EE Dept. is down 30% in two years. SEE THE New York Times, March 1. But the overall theme of the article is correct. The enrollment in my department is way down too, also about 30% in two years. The only surprising thing about all this is that the decline is not even sharper than what the report is citing. Too many students (and their parents) have unwarranted faith in the system. (Note my posting yesterday, which I titled "Misplaced Faith in Kerry.") I don't think even my faculty colleagues realize our enrollment is down 30%, let alone the fact that the job market in this field has taken a PERMANENT change, partly because of offshoring but especially because of H-1B/L-1. The CRA, the organization whose report is cited here, is a consortium of university CS departments. They've built fiefdoms based on high enrollments. Norm http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/8263034.htm Wednesday, Mar 24, 2004 U.S. students shun computer sciences OFFSHORING MAKES TECH CAREER LOOK RISKY By Karl Schoenberger Mercury News Undergraduates in U.S. universities are starting to abandon their studies in computer technology and engineering amid widespread worries about the accelerating pace of offshoring by high-technology employers. A new study, to be published in May, shows there was a dramatic drop-off of enrollment in those fields last year -- 19 percent -- and some educators warn about the potential consequences for America's global competitiveness. Enrollment in undergraduate computer-science courses continued to grow after the collapse of the dot-com bubble until the sharp decline in the 2002-03 academic year, according to the Washington-based Computing Research Association. The number of newly declared majors in computer science also showed a sudden 23 percent plunge last year. Many students are making rational choices, and hedging their bets. ``It's always good to learn more about computer applications, but for stability I think I'm going to focus on business skills,'' said 22-year-old Vince Ronan of Daly City, a senior majoring in information systems at San Francisco State University who plans to pursue a master's in business administration after graduating rather than an advanced degree in technology. Good jobs rare ``I don't know about outsourcing, but I know how tough it is to get a good job these days,'' said Ronan, whose older brother earned a technology degree three years ago, but kept his day job as a supermarket checkout clerk. The Computing Research Association's annual Taulbee Survey tracks enrollments at U.S. and Canadian universities granting doctorates in computer science. The numbers of undergraduates surveyed -- showing a fall from 94,461 to 76,844 for enrollment and 23,033 to 17,706 for newly declared majors -- represent an estimated one-third of the total in all institutions. But researchers said they believed that their findings accurately reflect trends in computer education across the nation. At San Jose State University, which was not part of the Taulbee Survey, enrollment in the computer-science department has fallen by one-third over the past three semesters, and the number of majors has declined to fewer than 1,400 students from more than 2,000, said David Hayes, the department chair. ``I'm hoping this trend will stabilize,'' Hayes said, ``but I don't know that it will.'' He's worried there could be a mismatch in the high-tech labor force if the trend continues. Research for the CRA's study was directed by Stu Zweben, chair of the Ohio State University's computer and information science department, who said he was alarmed to find a 30 percent drop in enrollment last year in his own department. The cause is subject to speculation, but many educators say their students are worried that the growing trend of sending software-industry work overseas limits their future opportunities. ``I think there are policy issues that need to be addressed because of offshoring,'' said Zweben. ``We should be prepared to take a look at what we're teaching and ask if we're preparing our students for jobs that are going to be subject to outsourcing.'' Bill Gates involved The problem is serious enough that Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates went on a tour of major university campuses last month to encourage students to stick with their studies despite the exodus of computer-industry jobs overseas. Gates even stopped at Harvard University, where he had dropped out as an undergraduate to start his software empire. ``We need your excitement,'' he said in his pep talk to Harvard students, according to a report in the New York Times. ``Most of these jobs are very interesting and very social -- you work with a lot of smart people. I'm excited about the future of computing, and I'm excited to see how each of you can contribute to it.'' It's no secret that Microsoft, as well as nearly every major U.S. technology company, is involved to one degree or another in shipping software-development work to offshore contractors. The reasons to do so are compelling. Many companies turn to India because its technology workers are comparatively cheap -- about one-ninth the cost of their U.S. counterparts, according to documents in a recent tax case involving the Indian software company Infosys Technologies. Companies also say they are taking advantage of a workforce in India that is well-trained and highly skilled in cutting-edge technologies. Microsoft, which has about 55,000 employees worldwide and 36,000 in the United States, estimates it will hire an additional 3,000 people domestically in its current fiscal year, said spokeswoman Stacy Drake. ``We've always had a challenge of hiring the best and the brightest,'' Drake said. ``so declining enrollments is a concern for us.'' National goal Central economic planners in the governments of India and China have made it a national priority to train students in computer science and engineering, supporting growing numbers of advanced technology institutes. Undergraduates at top-ranked universities don't appear to be losing interest in computer-science education as rapidly as counterparts in second-tier schools. But they still face the harsh realities of the job market and their expectations are lower, said Robert Gray, vice chair of the electrical-engineering department at Stanford University. ``At Stanford they are going to find jobs,'' Gray said. ``But they may not be the jobs of their dreams.'' Ohio State's Zweben is optimistic about the continued need for technology graduates in the marketplace, and said the American university system offers unparalleled excellence at the graduate level. ``Our field is a pretty creative field, and we're teaching people to do all sorts of creative things,'' Zweben said. ``If you believe that most of the solutions to the complex problems that companies need to solve haven't been written yet, well, that's what we should be preparing our students to do.'' _________________________________________________________________ IF YOU'RE INTERESTED The 2003 Taulbee Survey will be published on CRA's Web site, www.cra.org. _________________________________________________________________ Contact Karl Schoenberger at kschoenberger@mercurynews. com or (415) 477-2500.