Date: Sun, 17 Oct 2004 11:07:11 -0700 From: Norm Matloff To: Norm Matloff Subject: more academic angst/corruption To: H-1B/L-1/offshoring e-newsletter The October 2 issue of The Economist (page 33) reported on a fascinating survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. The survey found huge gaps in points of view between the American populace and American leaders, where the term "leaders" means "not just politicians and businessmen, but also people from well-meaning institutions such as churches, universities and, er, the press." Here are some of the startling gaps which the poll found: % saying issue is very important issue the public leaders ----- ---------- ------- protecting the jobs 78% 41% of U.S. workers controlling illegal 58% 21% immigration improving the standard of 18% 64% living in developing nations This survey certainly explains one of the causes of the indifference the "leaders" have been showing to the American populace on issues like H-1B and offshoring. From their point of view, for instance, H-1B is good because immigration is good, and offshoring is good because it helps the developing nations. While many Americans may agree that immigration and improved conditions in the Third World are good things, they also feel that there has to be a balance between those things and the well-being of Americans. The "leaders" have no such concept of balance. Of course, these "leaders" do care about their OWN well-being. H-1B and offshoring are "good" for the business leaders, as it provides them with cheap labor, and thus "good" for the politicians too, since the business people will pay the politicians to protect those sources of cheap labor. The universities benefit from business largesse for the same H-1B/offshoring reasons that the politicians do, and because they themselves are consumers of cheap H-1B labor. The religious "leaders" benefit from immigration, which they view as a way to compensate for declines in membership in religious institutions. I have recently reported on the fact that the computer science academic establishment has finally come to realize that the gravy train is going away, forever. As recently as two years ago, they were saying that the poor job market for CS graduates was only a dip in the business cycle, but at this summer's biennial conference at Snowbird for CS department chairs, they admitted that there has been a permanent change in the job market. And, with thinly disguised panic, they wondered what to do about the large declines in enrollments in CS majors which have resulted from that permanently weakened job market. See http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/Archive/CSAcadEstablishment.txt One of the themes I had in that posting was to point out the irony that the short-term gain that CS academia accrued by toeing the industry party line on H-1B/offshoring is now leading to CS academia's long-term decline. In the article enclosed below, you can see academics' plaintive wails about the declining numbers of CS majors, reminiscent of George W. Bush's statement, "Why don't they love us anymore abroad?" Duh. And yet, as I pointed out yesterday, the universities continue to be manipulated by the industry lobbyists. Just as with the article I posted yesterday, they cite the out-of-date, and by now dark-humorous, Dept. of Labor projection that software engineering would be one of the fastest-growing job categories during 2002-2012; that projection, made back in 2001, will be revised next year, and clearly it will be much less sanguine. Of course, the decline in CS majors is welcomed by the industry lobbyists, who will use it to convince Congress to expand the H-1B program and to support offshoring. Harris Miller is in vintage form here: "They go back to other useful fields like English and history," said Harris Miller, president of the Information Technology Association of America, a trade group of 500 tech companies, including large Triangle employers IBM and SAS. "We are concerned that the student population in this country seems to react almost instantly to the headlines." Miller may be citing the report presented at the Snowbird conference, which found that the most popular majors chosen by UC Berkeley students who left CS were history and psychology. His message has always been that American kids are intellectual wimps who have neither the background nor the ability to study things like engineering. But of course, what the students are doing is perfectly rational. If the technical jobs are going offshore, and the only jobs available to Americans are, say, marketing software instead of developing it, then it makes perfect sense to gravitate to the verbal, human-interaction majors such as English, history and psychology. Miller himself is a perfect example. Though he never specifies his major in his bios ("Undergraduate degree at the University of Pittsburgh, graduate degree at Yale"), he presumably majored in a talking field too. Well, he reportedly drives a top-of-the-line Mercedes and is powerful enough to have run for Congress (though he lost), which is a lot better than many engineers are doing these days. As I said, the students are very perceptive about what fields are or aren't promising, and they vote with their feet, moving to the promising majors. As one of my students put it, "If I'm going to end up with an Econ-type job, I might as well major in Econ [and not have to stay up until 2 a.m. debugging my programming homework, for no future career]." Another (dark) howler is Miller's remark, We are concerned that the student population in this country seems to react almost instantly to the headlines. During 1998-2000, Miller, in a huge PR campaign, arranged for those headlines to scream that there was a terrible programmer labor shortage, urging students to study computer science. The kids did indeed "react almost instantly," only to find that the job market was nonexistent when they graduated four years later. Miller's lobbying firm, the ITAA, now says, without the slightest trace of embarrassment or guilt, that the industry "overhired" during the late 1990s. (See http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/Archive/ITAAOverhiring.txt) The article follows below. Norm http://www.crmbuyer.com/story/37140.html Shortage of Computer Science Grads May Force Offshoring By Jonathan B. Cox 10/09/04 5:00 AM PT The number of new undergraduate majors in U.S. computer science programs has fallen 28 percent since 2000. One reason, say those in the field, is that technology jobs appear less lucrative than they did during the dot-com boom. When the tech bubble burst, the promise of fast money evaporated. Offshoring, always an option for companies, could become a necessity. Dell Computer and other high-tech corporations have come under fire in recent years for shifting jobs overseas. They say it helps them cut costs and be closer to customers in growing markets such as India and China. Soon, they might have a more urgent reason. U.S. universities are producing fewer graduates in computer science, the foundation of many technology jobs. It's an alarming trend to some in the industry, one that they say could force companies to look offshore to meet demand. "Especially if the quality goes down, companies will feel they're better off going to other countries," said Pankaj K. Agarwal, chairman of the computer science department at Duke University. "We cannot afford that." Dropping Enrollment The number of new undergraduate majors in U.S. computer science programs has fallen 28 percent since 2000, reports the Computing Research Association, a group of more than 200 North American computer science, computer engineering and related academic departments. Duke has seen undergraduate enrollment in its computer science department fall by a fourth during the past three years. N.C. State University has seen roughly a 22 percent decline. Enrollment at UNC-Chapel Hill has risen since it started an undergraduate computer science major in 2001, though it, too, has logged noticeable declines of late. One reason, say those in the field, is that technology jobs appear less lucrative than they did during the dot-com boom. Then, students thought a computer science degree would lead to riches and a quick retirement. Many took on the major. Even those with minimal skills made it into the industry because demand was so high that companies had to hire almost anyone available. When the tech bubble burst, the promise of fast money evaporated. The value of stock options plummeted. Companies cut thousands of jobs to trim costs and stay viable. They moved work to countries where labor is cheaper. The industry lost its luster. Students were discouraged by difficult programs full of math with no quick path to success. Life of Dilbert? "Computer science is seen as a rather challenging major," said Kevin Jeffay, director of undergraduate studies for UNC-Chapel Hill's computer science department. "If you're going to work your butt off and have this Dilbert-like life, you don't want it." Even those students who do want it have had trouble, he said. Parents, after seeing reports of software and other tech jobs moving overseas, have steered their children away from computer science. "They go back to other useful fields like English and history," said Harris Miller, president of the Information Technology Association of America, a trade group of 500 tech companies, including large Triangle employers IBM and SAS. "We are concerned that the student population in this country seems to react almost instantly to the headlines." "You get into a downward spiral where you need the best and brightest, and it's not coming out in the quality and quantity that you need," Miller said. That prompts companies to look elsewhere for employees. Or Just Alarmism? Some temper the doomsday prediction. Undergraduate students now are likely of higher quality and thus more attractive to employers, because they have pursued computer science degrees despite the industry downturn. And just because there are fewer undergrads, that doesn't mean the labor pool will suffer. After the layoffs of the past few years, experienced workers returned to earn graduate degrees. Their decisions increase the number of qualified employees. Colleges have also begun to integrate computer instruction into other majors such as e-commerce. A computer science degree, therefore, can be unnecessary. One thing's almost certain, though: Those with the necessary skills could relive a bit of the dot-com fever as tech spending rebounds. Eric Glass, a sophomore at UNC-Chapel Hill, is optimistic. He watched as his father lost his position to a worker in India, and as his mother, also a high-tech worker, struggled to find a job. Even so, he will pursue a computer science major because he enjoys programming and figures the market will only improve. "I definitely don't think it will ever be the way it was before in the dot-com era," he said. "It will get better, I think." According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. high-tech industry will have almost 4 million jobs for computer programmers, software engineers and other computer specialists in 2012. That's fewer than it once predicted, but up from 2.9 million jobs in 2002. But with demand for high-tech workers weak now, experts fear more students could abandon computer-related fields. Major Fads Majors are faddish and cyclical, and students often lag trends in the job market. If they sense demand picking up, more will likely major in the field. It will just take two or four years for those decisions to manifest into more workers. Until then, businesses will have to act. "Companies will do what they have to do in order to make their business work," said Stu Zweben, who serves on the board of the Computing Research Association. "Some things might not get done. They might hire people with less IT skills. They'll look for other suppliers of those skills." Where will they look? Most likely overseas. Entrepreneurs and large companies alike have rushed to set up programming shops in India where workers write software. Others handle technical support for businesses in the United States. Similar offices have been established in Eastern Europe, and China also is seeking part of the business. By 2008, about 247,000 computer jobs will be performed offshore, predicts Forrester Research, a consulting firm in Massachusetts. That's more than double the 102,000 that were handled overseas last year. Overseas, though, is only one option. The declining supply of new workers "is a long-term concern of ours," said Jeff Chambers, vice president of human resources for SAS, the world's largest privately owned software company. "Short term, it's not." SAS, which employs about 4,000 at its Cary, North Carolina, headquarters and is known for its generous benefits, has hired selectively during the economic downturn. It has sought out the most talented workers laid off from companies such as Nortel (NYSE: NT) and IBM to gain a competitive edge. As its workers near retirement, SAS will try to retain them. It could let more of them work part time, for example, to avoid having to find as many new workers in a potentially tight labor market. "These people have a ton of experience," Chambers said. "We would rather keep the people we have than chase after new ones." No matter the short-term fix, the United States must find a way to stoke interest in technical fields or risk losing its technology leadership, said Matthew Szulik, chief executive of Red Hat (Nasdaq: RHAT), the world's biggest distributor of the Linux computer operating system. Start Before College The nation must revamp its public education system to put a stronger emphasis on science and math and show students that such careers can be rewarding, he said. Countries such as India and China are ahead in that regard. When Red Hat hires -- as it has been lately-- it looks for candidates with a strong background and also solid work experience. If companies can find higher-performing and lower-cost talent overseas, they could have little choice but to look. Unless the education system adapts to the needs of a global work force, the United States risks "becoming nothing but a services industry," Szulik said. "That would be bad to the whole economic structure of the nation." Brett Clippingdale of Canada gave up a high-paying job that afforded him a Mercedes to return to UNC-Chapel Hill for an undergraduate degree in computer science. He knows that low-cost countries are becoming more attractive to companies. Still, he is undeterred. He has a passion for technology and trusts that his enthusiasm and degree will lead him to success. "As far as a job, we'll hope," he said. "In the meantime, I'm doing what I like."