To: H-1B/L-1/offshoring e-newsletter

Wed May 21 21:24:26 PDT 2014


Recently I reported on a press release by an organization named
AfterCollege:

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/05/prweb11831238.htm

Among other things, the organization had found that 81.6% of this
spring's new engineering grads nationwide did not have a job lined up by
April.  The survey has been cited widely since then. 

I'd mentioned many times in this e-newsletter that the job market in
computer science typically starts to become tough at age 35.  But
generally the market for new CS grads has been good.  Not sensational,
as can be seen in the fairly flat salaries in the NACE reports, but
solid.

Though the CS job market doesn't necessarily correlate with the general
engineering market (at many universities, including mine, CS is
considered part of engineering), the AfterCollege survey made me wonder
if there had been a sudden change.  I mentioned that I would look into
this.

Since that time, I've:  talked to the AfterCollege person involved with
their study; obtained their written report; talked to placement officers
at two universities; and done an informal survey of this year's
graduating seniors in Computer Science at my institution, UC Davis.

Though the results are not conclusive, it does appear to me that the
finding a job has indeed become somewhat tougher for the new CS grads.
Here are the details:

1.  The AfterCollege press release and full report had been vague in
several aspects.  It stated the percentage of respondents who had not
found a job by April 15, but also stated that the survey had begun on
February 27.  Had they recontacted the earlier respondents on April 15?
The answer turns out to be no.  Thus some respondents had not found a
job as of, say, March 10.  On the other hand, the speculation one reader
posed to me that the survey was biased because it focused on those who
were having trouble in the market doesn't seem to be correct either.
The firm surveyed students from a variety of sources, though it was
definitely not a true random sample from the population of all
graduating seniors.

2.  I queried placement officers whom I know at two universities in
Northern California.  Neither thought the AfterCollege survey was based
on solid data.  But on the other hand, although I had expected them to
make statements along the lines of, "No, our students are doing great in
the job market," citing high placement rates, neither did so.  

One said that her university's engineering program is so demanding that
many students don't have time to look for a job until AFTER graduation.
This person did say that a large number of companies had booked time at
the school's recruiting events.  

The placement officer at the second university also did not have data
that was at odds with the AfterCollege survey.  She did indicate that
most students start their job search well before they graduate, but she
stressed several times that many don't work hard enough at it.  She
said, "I will say that there are a number of graduating students still
looking for jobs but I do not think there are 81%," and added "...if the
CS student has been looking...and they have good grades and
communication skills they probably have a job."

3.  I used to take an informal job survey of graduating seniors every
year around this time, but had not done so for a few years.  So, I tried
it again last week.

Of those responding, 46% did not yet have a job, well below the 81%
figure, but the overall figure is likely considerably higher than 46%,
for the following reason.

I got about a 20% response rate, about half of which came only after I
sent a followup reminder.  That's not too bad, but my experience over
the years has been that the ones who don't respond typically don't have
a job, and are embarrassed to say so.  I tried to blunt that in my
survey question, stressing that the students should reply either way.
But I believe the "embarrassment" phenomenon was definitely still at
work, as evidenced by the fact that the responses that came in after my
reminder message were strongly in the not-yet-employed category.  I
would guess that a big majority of the nonrespondents are in that
category.

4.  Two pieces of anecdotal information move me here.  One really top
student, top grades (about 3.9, as I recall), highly adept at software
design, very knowledgeable about computer systems, and personally
outgoing and well-spoken, could only get a software testing job in
Silicon Valley, though he did accept a developer position out of state.
Another student, a family friend at UCB with good grades, also was
offered only a testing job in Silicon Valley, which he accepted.  Though
almost all the students in my survey with job offers had developer
positions, these two exceptions really got me wondering.

So, what is the bottom line?

Again, these results are not solidly conclusive.  Nevertheless, I
believe that the market has softened somewhat for new CS grads, and that
the AfterCollege figures, though probably not to be taken literally, do
reflect a problem situation.  

By the way, it was interesting to me that of my respondents who did have
jobs lined up, two companies were disproportionately represented.  The
same two firms were big last year, based on informal conversations I had
with students at the time.  Both of the firms, a smaller but somewhat
known Silicon Valley company, and a very well-known one out of state,
have a reputation for hiring heavily but retaining lightly. 

Norm


Archived at http://heather.cs.ucdavis.edu/Archive/2014CSGrads.txt