Date: Sun, 31 Oct 2010 22:08:03 -0700 From: Norm Matloff To: Norm Matloff Subject: the coming election To: H-1B/L-1/offshoring e-newsletter Relax, I'm not going to tell how to vote. :-) Indeed, I should and do avoid endorsing anyone, though I do point out lies, misrepresentations and so on. But for the record, I'm a longtime Democrat who often leaves his ballot blank for elected offices, due to lack of respect for both major party candidates. But Pat Thibodeau of Computerworld had an interesting piece on October 28 titled, "What This Election Means for H-1B, Offshoring," and I definitely have comments. You can view his report at http://www.computerworld.co.ke/articles/2010/10/28/what-election-means-h-1b-offshoring Thibodeau is correct in noting that offshoring has become a big election issue. For instance, he cites the Senate race here in California between Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina, the Republican ex-CEO of HP. Thibodeau reports the race is close in the polls, with Boxer having only a slight edge, but if you understand the dynamics of the polls as elections approach, I believe it has been clear for several weeks that Boxer will win. And this is due in large part to the offshoring issue, I believe. In her first debate with Fiorina, Boxer really hammered home the point that Fiorina had offshored tens of thousands of jobs while at HP. This was followed by very powerful TV ads, with a clip of Fiorina saying, "China, India, Poland, I know exactly where those jobs have been going," followed by the voiceover: "Of course she knows, because SHE sent them there." Boxer is just as culpable, being one of the strongest supporters of H-1B in the Senate. Meanwhile, the Democrats, who've been criticizing tax breaks for offshoring ever since John Kerry ran for president (an issue cited by Thibodeau's article too), had a chance to enact legislation to curtail those breaks a few weeks ago, and they voted it down. But the populace doesn't know these things, and Boxer's anti-offshoring rhetoric does strike a nerve, for good reason. Meanwhile former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is losing badly in her bid for California governor. There are of course various factors at work, but the irony is striking: Here Fiorina and Whitman, former CEOs who viewed themselves as having the business savvy to save California's jobs problems, are viewed as the problem rather than the solution. Thibodeau also reports that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may lose his seat, and Thibodeau speculates that "If the Democrats retain control of the Senate, the two most frequently mentioned replacements are Sens. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), two lawmakers who have sought major reforms of the H-1B program." I regard that characterization as a bit off the mark. Durbin, though he is cosponsor of the excellent Durbin/Grassley H-1B reform bill, has not shown the enthusiasm for it that Grassley has, to my knowledge; I can't remember Durbin ever speaking to the press about it, for instance. Schumer is out and out pro-industry on H-1B, in my view, as I've explained before. In many elections, there have been people running on H-1B reform platforms. The most notable was Debbie Stabenow, who wrested away the Senate seat of H-1B expansion legislation architect Spencer Abraham in Michigan a few years ago. This year, one I know of is Dave Chapman, an H-1B activist, http://www.davechapmanforcongress.com/ Thibodeau quotes Prof. Ron Hira as saying that it really won't matter which party controls either house, in terms of H-1B and offshoring. I agree with that, as I discussed above, but at the same time, the defeats of Fiorina and Whitman, especially Fiorina, will send quite a message. Again, though the Republican leadership probably viewed these two as job creators early in the campaign, the populace views them, to borrow Rob Sanchez's phrase, as job destroyers. That should be a wakeup call. Norm